Monthly Archives: November 2024

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The Broadside | The Signs Are Looking Good, But Don’t Relax

It’s the day before perhaps the most consequential presidential election of my life. We’re either going to repudiate the insanity of Obama’s third term or we’re going to march into a thousand years of darkness. OK, that might be overstating it a bit, but if anyone but Trump takes the helm in January, I’m afraid that any chance to resurrect America as founded will be gone for a long time—perhaps for good.

Think of it as the last chance to grab a dead branch sticking out of the riverbank as you’re swept along with the current toward the falls just around the bend up ahead.

While the race is a virtual dead heat, there is some reason for hope.

As for the battleground states, the newest poll has Trump ahead in all seven swing states, including Wisconsin. If that wasn’t good enough news for you, his lead is outside the margin of error in three states: Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.

In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump holds modest leads, outpacing Harris by 3.4 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively. His biggest leads are in Arizona and Nevada, where his advantage reaches 6.5 and 5.5 points. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the race is closer, but Trump maintains slight leads, with margins ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 points. Overall, while the race remains tight in some states, Trump has managed to secure a consistent edge over Harris throughout these battleground regions.

Then there’s this take:

On top of that, Alex Castellanos, a Republican strategist, thinks the pollsters are missing a key dynamic in the race because it has remained so tight over the last couple of months.

I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation. You know, 95% confidence level means that 5% of the time you’re going to get a crappy poll. We hardly ever see that.

It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball. Somebody’s missing something. What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. 31 states have voter registration by party. 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans. Miami-Dade County is now voting more Republican.

Iowa was +1 Republican. It’s now +10. And yet we’re getting these surveys that I think are off base. Somebody is missing something. I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?

This all bodes well for Trump. But as I’ve said before, I don’t trust the polling, I don’t trust the Democrats, and I won’t feel any relief until Trump takes the oath in January.

If you haven’t voted, get out there tomorrow and vote like Trump is down and your vote is the one that will put him over the top.

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The Broadside | Why Voting Early Is Important

Welcome to November 2024, the month I’ve been waiting for since November 3, 2020. This is the month we finally have the chance to expel the disgrace that is Joe Biden from the White House.

I spoke with a local precinct committee member who has canvassed 200 homes in her district so far this election cycle. She’s been a vocal proponent of voting early, which neither I nor the missus have ever done until this election, with her encouragement.

(I’ve always been a purest, voting on Election Day, where I would go stand in line to cast my vote with others from my community. Although I must say that in the last few elections I’ve voted in, turnout has been disappointingly low, so it’s not the community activity it used to be.)

This precinct committeewoman (PC), who’s been doing this for 25 years, said there are at least three reasons to vote early, and I pass them on to you for consideration.

The first is that when you vote early, you bank your vote early. The reason that’s important is that if your vote is already counted, “they” (those who might be looking for ways to cheat) can’t change the numbers of those who voted early, because they’ve already been counted and are locked in. On election day, there’s more opportunity for bad actors to rig the vote in real time and less chance they’ll be caught. Flood the polls early so that the “banked” numbers are so large it’s “too big to rig.” Democrats have used that tactic to their advantage, and Republicans need to do the same.

The second reason is to promote efficiency and reduce cost. This PC gets a list of registered Republicans who have NOT yet voted and makes a personal visit, going door-to-door in neighborhoods. It can take a long time to make those visits. However, if someone votes early, their name is taken off the list and the canvasser doesn’t have to make a visit, freeing up time to get to others who have yet to vote and reducing the number of visits that need to be made. The PCs can also save money and time by focusing emails, texts, mailers and phone calls on those who really need a nudge to go vote.

The third reason to vote early is that you reduce the risk of disruption on Election Day. You don’t know what could happen: a power outage, bad weather, illness, travel delays, or long lines. If you go early and something happens to keep you from voting, you can try again another day. If you go on Election Day and something happens—you lose your opportunity.

We voted early and it was easy-peasy lemon squeezy. It felt weird, like it was illegal or something, but everybody was friendly and we went through the same process we normally do when we vote. The only difference was that we voted in a different location than where we normally go to cast our ballots. That’s true for a lot of precincts, so check your local .gov site to find out where to go to vote early. Just google “Where to vote early in <your town and state>.”

Here’s a Brit who is intensely interested in our presidential election and understands the power of voting early.

I think this is first election in which I’ve been much more aware of how much of the world watches our elections. Look at Ms. Berg’s final comment: “Everything is at stake.”

Not only are millions of Americans desperately hoping Trump win (by a blowout!), but other people around the globe are counting on Donald Trump winning. We need to keep our foot on the gas — go vote if you haven’t yet.

Have a great weekend.