Category Archives: Political Polls

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Daily Broadside | Per Curiam, Baby! U.S. Supreme Court Unanimously Slaps Colorado Silly

SCOTUS rules 9-0 that Colorado can’t remove Trump from their ballot, no matter what Colorado’s Supreme Court says.

The Supreme Court ruled on March 4 that former President Donald Trump can’t be removed from the ballot by individual states, overturning the Colorado Supreme Court decision that found him ineligible as a candidate and disqualified from the state ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

“Responsibility for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates rests with Congress and not the States. The judgment of the Colorado Supreme Court therefore cannot stand,” the per curiam order reads. “All nine Members of the Court agree with that result.”

This was not a “partisan” Supreme Court decision, with the liberal justices taking one side and the other justices taking the other. All nine of them agreed that Colorado doesn’t have the authority to remove Trump from the ballot based on Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment.

“Because the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates, we reverse.”

Ed Morrisey at Hot Air says the nine justices wanted to make this stick, and quotes Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s separate concurrence that makes that point:

She emphasizes, however, that the real story here is their unanimity in regard to state action on Section 3:

Particularly in this circumstance, writings on the Court should turn the national temperature down, not up. For present purposes, our differences are far less important than our unanimity: All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this case. That is the message Americans should take home.

So Trump remains on the ballot in all 50 states and that is important particularly today — Super Tuesday. Trump won the North Dakota Republican caucus last night. Today’s contests cross these states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and American Samoa.

New polls show that Trump is outperforming Biden. Fox News shows Trump leading Biden “in a potential rematch, the survey finds Trump receives 49% support while Biden gets 47%.  That’s pretty much where it’s been since September.  Trump’s advantage is within the margin of sampling error.”

At National Review, Rich Lowry asks a rhetorical question: “How is this survivable [for Biden]?”

That’s a rhetorical question. There are ways it could be survivable, but this finding in the new Fox News poll has to be the most disturbing result from the new bout of general-election polling. Besides the public’s belief that Biden is too old to serve again, 48 percent said that Biden’s policies are hurting them and their families, and only 25 percent said they are helping — whereas 45 percent said Trump’s policies helped and 32 percent said they hurt.

The latest CBS News / YouGov poll agrees:

As Super Tuesday makes an historic rematch all but official, voters are comparing not just two presidents, but two presidencies. 

And right now former President Donald Trump emerges from that comparison as the frontrunner. He leads President Biden by four points nationally, his largest lead to date. Here’s why:

Voters recall the economy under Trump more fondly than they rate the economy now. 

While neither gets great marks, voters today look back on Trump’s presidency with relatively better retrospective ratings than they’d rate Joe Biden’s presidency so far. 

And in a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump leads Haley “77%-20% among registered GOP primary voters when asked which candidate they’d be most likely to vote for if the election for the Republican nominee for president were held today. The former president also has a strong lead over Haley – 76.9%-14.5% – in FiveThirtyEight’s Republican primary polling average as of March 4. Biden, meanwhile, was down 43%-48% against Trump with regard to the likely November matchup, according to the Times/Siena poll.”

This is the same feel I got watching Trump in 2020; the momentum was there, the energy was there, the voters were there. But our domestic enemies were “fortifying the election” and if you don’t think they’re making plans for November, you haven’t been paying attention, because their plans include all of the election interference we’re watching as ridiculous lawfare suits are slapped on Trump and his associates.

That’s why the SCOTUS decision yesterday was a breath of fresh air. Unfortunately, Coney Barrett’s entreaty to turn down the national temperature will go unheeded by the Left.

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Daily Broadside | It’s Trump and DeSantis with Ramaswamy Polling Third

We’re 17 months away from the next presidential “election” in 2024. I put scare quotes around the word “election” because I’m no longer confident that event is what we think it is. The current Resident was installed in a 2020 election “fortified” by a cabal of businesses, state legislatures, judicial activists, social media titans and local election organizers. Add to that the dreadful SCOTUS opinion handed dow last week that state legislatures do not ultimately control policies around federal elections—despite the clearly worded clause in Article 1, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution—and maybe I should be writing the word like this: “””election”””.

Any poll taken a year-and-a-half prior to any kind of election should be taken with a grain of salt. But it’s still an interesting exercise to see exactly what the populace is thinking with respect to candidates for the 2024 presidential election. We on the Right should take seriously who our nominee will be because, just like the last several national elections (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022), the next is also an existential one.

By 2024, Barack Obama’s Marxist-infused Democrat Party will have held America hostage for 12 out of 16 years.  This nation cannot survive if the Democrats are in control for another 4-8 years with what will become an irreversible stranglehold on the federal bureaucracy and judiciary (including the Supreme Court).  If the Republicans do not win the presidency and Congress in 2024, this nation may well have passed the point of no return.

While I hold some hope that we will weather our national identity crisis, every election is now critical. The Democratic Marxists know it, too, and so do the Deep State and the lapdog media—which is why we can’t count on our future “elections” to be free and fair.

Yet, we must choose a candidate.

Trump, who has dominated U.S. politics since he came down the elevator in 2015 to announce his candidacy, is by far the 2024 presidential candidate to beat.

Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding 34-point lead over his nearest competitor in the Republican primary field, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), according to a Fox News poll. 

Most of the registered voters self-identified GOP primary voters sampled, 56 percent, support Trump for the nomination, while 22 percent back DeSantis. The margin between the pair had grown 19 percentage points since February when Trump led 43 percent to DeSantis’s 28 percent.

Even a key DeSantis advisor admits as much.

A top spokesperson for Ron DeSantis’ super PAC is sounding a decidedly dour note on the Florida governor’s presidential prospects, saying his campaign is facing an “uphill battle” and is trailing badly in the key nominating states.

Steve Cortes, who previously supported Donald Trump, also heaped praise on the former president, calling him a “runaway frontrunner” and “maestro” of the debate.

“Right now in national polling we are way behind, I’ll be the first to admit that,” Cortes said in a Twitter spaces event that was recorded on Sunday night. “I believe in being blunt and honest. It’s an uphill battle but clearly Donald Trump is the runaway frontrunner.”

I’m not sure Trump is a “‘maestro’ of the debate.” His off the cuff bluster and free-wheeling style gets him into a lot of trouble because of his imprecision. But he does know how to shut down his opposition while on stage, which makes him a formidable combatant.

Surprisingly, Vivek Ramaswamy is now in double digits, polling third behind Trump and DeSantis with support at 10 percent.

Similar to other national surveys, the poll finds former President Donald Trump with a strong lead in the primary race at 49 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falls 33 points behind with 16 percent support. Ramaswamy comes in a close third place at ten percent support, just six points behind DeSantis, making him the only other candidate to break into double-digit territory.

I like Ramaswamy’s anti-woke message. In particular I like his promise to use the military to secure our southern border. I also like the fact that he’s the son of Indian immigrants, who legally migrated from the subcontinent through our front door. That kind of story will drive the Left nuts.

All other candidates are polling at less than 5%.

The nominee won’t be Pence, Haley, or Christie. The second-tier candidates, for the most part, are running vanity campaigns. They don’t have the support to mount an effective challenge to Trump or DeSantis.

Who do you like at this point in the process?

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Daily Broadside | Everything is Looking Good for the Mid-Terms

Daily Verse | Acts 7:57
At this they covered their ears and, yelling at the top of their voices, they all rushed at him, dragged him out of the city and began to stone him.

Monday’s Reading: Acts 8-9

A couple of times this year, I’ve cautiously said that if the polls are accurate, the Democrats will get blitzed by not just a red wave, but by a crimson tsunami (see here, here and here).

In fact, last week I wrote, “A week from today will either be a red wave of tsunami-sized proportions or a trickle of red leaking through an overflowing toilet in Arizona. For now, I’m feeling optimistic that we will see a flood of Republican wins washing away Democrats for at least a generation.”

I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from that optimism, but I can’t be entirely sure of what seems to be a building tidal wave until the last votes are counted. I won’t take anything for granted at this point because we got punched in the face over the last six years by a furious and exposed bureaucracy which had been comfortably hidden behind the theatre of Washington’s historical architecture, the costumes of crisp suits, and the polite script of politicians. We had innocently trusted that, with some few exceptions, the decorum and appearance of our political leaders meant the machinations of government were still turning as intended by our Founders.

Now that we know the truth, we cannot unknow and nothing can ever be the same again. Even if we’re able to eliminate the anti-American powers that exist in the federal government, we really cannot go bakc to the way we thought it was before. There needs to be a dismantling of the current federal leviathan and a rebuilding on a much smaller scale, the way our Founders envisioned.

That means that our elections are now existential battles against not just an extremist political party, but against the unelected bureaucrats and other evil actors who want to consolidate power and rule over the American people by forcing us into conformity with their plans.

Anyway—back to the elections. Such illustrious publications as The New Yorker are bracing for a “bloodbath” for the Democrats.

The consensus among a number of G.O.P. pollsters and operatives I spoke to this week is that in the Senate races that are thought to be competitive, Republican candidates are heading for a clean sweep: Mehmet Oz will beat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and not just by a point or two; Adam Laxalt looks pretty certain to defeat the incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada; even less regarded candidates such as Blake Masters in Arizona will be carried into office by a predicted wave. “He won’t deserve it, but I think at this point he falls into a Senate seat,” one Republican strategist told me. To these Republican insiders, certain high-profile races in which G.O.P. candidates were already favored now look like potential blowouts—Kari Lake’s campaign for governor in Arizona, J. D. Vance’s for Senate in Ohio. And some races that seemed out of reach, such as the Senate campaign, in New Hampshire, of the election denier Don Bolduc, now look like possible wins. The word that kept coming up in these conversations was “bloodbath.”

Likewise, the man who predicted Brexit and Trump’s victory in 2016 is talking about a “Red Tsunami.”

Here’s what the polls are showing.

Keep an eye on the Georgia Senate race between Walker and Warnock. That could be a bellwether for the rest of the country. GA reports Eastern Standard Time.

JD Vance has a 10-POINT LEAD on Tim Ryan. Again, polls nearly always undercount Republicans, so this poll, if it holds up, bodes well for Vance (and Ohio).

The RCP Generic Congressional Vote has Republicans up by +2.5 points.

Over at 270 To Win: “A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view these ratings as a table.”

Everything looks good. Great, even.

But don’t get complacent and don’t get cocky.

These polls tell us what a limited number of people say they will do. To make it a reality, we need every voter to go to the polls and exercise their right to vote. We’ve been waiting for tomorrow since the despicable man currently occupying the White House was wrongly sworn in, in January 2021. It’s time to severely limit the damage he can do with the remainder of his term.

All I can say is, get out and vote.

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Daily Broadside | All the Signs Point to a Massive Red Wave … But Only If We Vote

Daily Verse | John 14:31
“… but the world must learn that I love the Father and that I do exactly what my Father has commanded me.”

Wednesday’s Reading: John 15-17

Happy mid-week fellow travelers!

I have to admit that I’m feeling optimistic and cheery about the polling I’m seeing in the lead-up to Clifford the Big Red Dog wiping the floor with Blue from Blue’s Clues — if Blue was the snarling, mangy, tick-infested offspring of Shenzi the Hyena voiced by liberal swell Whoopi Goldberg in the Lion King.

Hey, cut me some slack. I’m working overtime, here.

It’s hard not to be encouraged by the polling.

Those are great odds.

If Deace is anywhere near accurate with his predictions for state governors, it bodes well for other races in red states.

RCP’s 2022 generic congressional vote shows Republicans with a nearly 3-point advantage.

Seven polls all show a swing to the GOP.

Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democrat Party over their progressive extremism, endorses J.D. Vance in Ohio.

Ten blue state district House races that are moving toward GOP (not meaning the GOP leads the poll; just that the Dem position has softened).

In one of the most high-profile races, Lee Zeldin holds a razor-thin edge over incumbent Kathy Hochul. Amazing gains from the Zeldin campaign. Maybe New Yorkers are finally done with the extremism of the Democrats.

According to NBC News “Republicans hold MASSIVE advantage on 3 of 5 most Important issues according to New Gallup poll.” Coming from a Democrat house organ, it must be true.

There’s a lot more out there that should have us feeling good about November 8, but remember: none of it matters if you don’t vote.

Go give freedom a chance.

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Daily Broadside | Lurch Fetterman’s Lump Losing to Dr. Oz in PA Race

Daily Verse | John 11:48
“If we let him go on like this, everyone will believe in him, and then the Romans will come and take away both our place and our nation.”

Tuesday’s Reading: John 13-14

It’s November and one week to Go Time. A week from today will either be a red wave of tsunami-sized proportions or a trickle of red leaking through an overflowing toilet in Arizona. For now, I’m feeling optimistic that we will see a flood of Republican wins washing away Democrats for at least a generation.

There’s a lot going on in these last days of campaigning. Here in Illinois, which always votes Democrat because of Chicago and Springfield, Republican Darren Bailey is 17 points down to Democrat incumbent Gov. Pritzker according to a Civiqs poll (Oct. 24) listed at FiveThirtyEight.com. Over at 270toWin.com Bailey is down by an average of almost 16 percent. He’s unlikely to pull off an upset.

However, things are looking brighter in other races across the U.S.

One of the most high-profile races features Dem Lt. Governor John Fetterman, who is now behind in his Senate race with Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, who surged to the front after the Disastrous Debate Debacle featuring Fetterman’s mental deterioration after his stroke in May. That the media and the Dems (pretty sure I just repeated myself) have conspired to hide his mental state from voters and having repeatedly assured us that he was just fine, is not playing well with undecided voters.

Four polls conducted since the day of the one and only U.S. Senate debate in Pennsylvania have showed Dr. Mehmet Oz leading John Fetterman by two or three points, still within the margin of error, but suggesting Republicans are coming home to their party’s nominee while undecided voters are breaking for Oz over Fetterman. 

Just a word about Fetterman and the Dems hiding his condition. I have sympathy for Fetterman and sincerely hope he heals, physically. But I have zero compunction about noticing his condition and asking questions.

In the world of progressive utopia, we’re not supposed to notice, you know. We’re supposed to be passive and simply clap for Anyone Doing Anything. Noticing Fetterman’s mental difficulties is “ableist” according to Mrs. Fetterman and his performance during the debate should be lauded just because Fetterman and his Lump showed up.

He’d never get my vote anyway because of his hoodie-wearing, blue-collar progressive, anti-freedom ideology. Practically speaking, however, if Fetterman has an auditory processing disorder and can’t function even with compensation such as “closed captioning monitors to follow both the moderator questions and Oz’s remarks” (which, by the way, Oz didn’t have to agree to, yet did, thereby not being “ableist”) — what does that mean for processing debates at the highest levels of government?

I’ll tell you what it means: he can’t and won’t be able to process and will simply be a rubber stamp for the Democrats, albeit a very large rubber stamp. He won’t be able to think independently — but truthfully, he wouldn’t anyway.

All this to say, so called “journalists” and the Democrat party lied about his condition right up until they couldn’t hide it anymore. If anyone is “ableist,” it’s these monsters who enable a mentally deficient half-wit to run for national office.

I’m not the only one who thinks Fetterman isn’t fit for high office. Talk to the centrist Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, one of PA’s largest newspapers, which just endorsed Oz.

“We believe Mr. Oz is the better bet for Pennsylvania,” the board wrote, before writing that Fetterman’s health stemming from the stroke he suffered earlier this year was not an issue for them.

We’RE NOt aBLeIST!

“His lack of transparency, however, in refusing to release his medical records is troubling. It suggests an impulse to conceal and a mistrust of the people. All candidates for a major elected office should release their medical records, as did Mr. Oz. If you want privacy, don’t run for public office,” it added.

[…]

The board wrote that Fetterman’s “life experience and maturity” were also concerns because he “lived off his family’s money for much of his life,” and had “little experience in holding real jobs or facing the problems of working people.”

LOL … a lazy do-nothing wants to continue being a slacker, just with more money and prestige.

It also cited Fetterman’s lack of apology over in an incident in which he pulled a shotgun on an unarmed Black jogger after hearing gunshots, and his flip-flop on supporting fracking.

HOw daRE yOu, rAciST!

“Mr. Oz is extraordinarily wealthy, but achieved his worldwide fame and success largely through his own talent and determination,” the board wrote. “Unlike most Republican politicians, candidate Oz spent a lot of time in poor urban neighborhoods, talking to people and, most important, listening and learning.”

Bottom line is that Dr. Oz is up 3 points and holding. Still within the margin of error, but the momentum has shifted to him. I suspect that we’ll see him win that race.

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Daily Broadside | If You Believe in God, You’re in Good Company (for Now)

Daily Verse | Psalm 62:11-12
One thing God has spoken,
    two things I have heard:
that you, O God, are strong,
    and that you, O Lord, are loving.

Wednesday’s Reading: Psalms 67-72

It’s Wednesday and our carjackers are picking up speed and starting to shimmy in the turns with us in the back seat as we careen down the Avenue of the Americas with a full tank of gas and a wallet emptied by their cruelty and indifference, knowing that they’ll either go out in a blaze of glory or screech to a stop in Davos where they’ll hand us off for compliance training without our freedom, possessions, or sanity.

No time is a good time to reject belief in God, but this would be a particularly unwise time to do so. Still, this is the United States of America, where wisdom is lacking and where the idea of God just got a little less support.

The percentage of Americans who say they believe in God has dipped to the lowest number in the past nearly 80 years, according to a new Gallup poll published Friday.

The Values and Belief poll, conducted from May 2 to 22, showed 81% of people answered that they believe in God. That is down six percentage points from the 87% of respondents who said they believed in God in the 2017 poll. This year is the lowest percentage in Gallup’s trend since the public opinion polling company first asked the question in 1944.

This year’s poll found 17% of Americans said they do not believe in God.

Joe Biden’s America, people. Where even our spiritual condition is the worst in decades. Seriously, more than 90 percent of people believed in God from 1944 to 2011, with the number stabilizing at a high of 98 percent from 1944 through the 1960s.

Whether you believe in God or not seems to correspond with your political affiliation.

The Gallup Values and Beliefs poll found that the decrease in theism has been driven by young adults and those on the political left. Both groups’ belief in God has dropped by 10 percent or more compared to the 2013-2017 average for their demographics.

These groups are also those least likely to say they believe in God in comparison to other demographics.

Liberals (62 percent), young adults (68 percent) and Democrats (72 percent) gave significantly lower rates of belief in God, while conservatives (94 percent) and Republicans (92 percent) gave the highest.

The least change in belief has occurred among conservatives and married adults.

What that seems to be telling us is that religious belief — or at least belief in God — plays a big role in the political divisions we have in this country.

Younger Americans are also less likely to believe in God than their parents and grandparents. 68 percent of 18-29 years say they don’t believe in God, compared to 81 percent of 30-49 year olds and 88 percent of 50-64 year olds.

18-29 year olds includes those who went to college, where we all know that students are indoctrinated into hating America and anything American, including our historical norms when it came to Christian faith.

Our faith hasn’t been passed along to the next generation, it seems. Yet, we need men and women of faith who take their beliefs seriously and let it affect how they vote. Paul was quite clear with his young protégé, Timothy, that “the things you have heard me say in the presence of many witnesses entrust to reliable people who will also be qualified to teach others” (2 Tim. 2:2).

However, we’re not even doing the basics.

Interestingly, while belief in God is on the decline, Gallup clocked an even steeper decline in church attendance, church membership and trust in religious institutions as a whole. In other words, it may not be just that belief in God is dropping, but that it’s evolving into something less beholden to traditional ideas of what it even means to believe in God.

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Daily Broadside | Most Polls Skew Democrat and Are Probably 6 Points Worse Than Reported

Daily Verse | Psalm 27:8
My heart says of you, “Seek his face!”
Your face, Lord, I will seek.

Wednesday’s Reading: Psalms 31-35

Happy Wednesday my friends. Summer has hit the Midwest and we’re experiencing temperatures in the nineties this week. Hot and muggy. I won’t complain, though, because I was so done with the extreme cold of winter.

I try to stay current with Brandon’s popularity or, as it’s called by the polling firms, “approval ratings.” A new poll by Civiqs shows him underwater by 17 points.

That chart shows all respondents. It includes Republicans, Democrats and Independents. When you filter for Democrats only, this is what you get:

It boggles my mind to see that 70 percent of Democrats approve of the job Brandon’s doing (in a downward trend). I honestly can’t understand why only 12 percent disapprove. That’s less than have no opinion (17%).

Republicans are much clearer about what they think of the Resident.

Those supporting the GOP came out of the gate disapproving of Brandon and have only gotten stronger over the last 17 months. The 2 percent who approve are Never Trumpers and the writers at The Dispatch and The Bulwark. Oh, plus RINOs Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and Mitt Romney.

Remember that only about 37% of the population is Democrat while 31% is Republican. The rest are Independents. That means that neither party wins without significant support from indies. Here’s what the poll tells us about them.

That’s quite a gap — a 45-point spread with an upward trend. As much as they hated Trump, Independents are realizing they’ve been had by the Democrats. Good luck closing the gap, Dems.

As bad as these numbers are for Democrats, it’s likely they’re even worse than being reported. According to this piece in the American Thinker, most polling firms “are systemically biased against conservatives.”

For three cycles in a row, there’s been this consistent pattern of pollsters overestimating Democratic support in some states and underestimating support in other states.  It happened in 2018.  It happened in 2020.  And the reason that’s happening is because the way that [pollsters] are doing polling right now just doesn’t work.

The author goes on to identify two intractable problems for pollsters: “One is developing an accurate voter turnout model that predicts who is likely to vote.  The other is getting an unbiased measurement of what voters think, known as a random sample.” Getting an unbiased measurement is difficult because Republican voters, in particular, don’t trust political polls.

The trust issue is a societal problem that has been building for many years.  Due to partisan infighting, some voters have lost faith in our national institutions; politics; and, by association, political polls. This issue affects conservatives more than liberals, causing a polling effect called partisan nonresponse or nonresponse bias.

After some additional analysis, he concludes with this:

If the polls are overestimating approval numbers for Biden and other Democrats, how bad is it? The political climate today is different since the 2020 election, but the Democrat poll bias seems intact, which was 4% nationwide. Since nonresponse bias, 4%, and registered voter bias, 2.6%, should be mutually exclusive, we can add them together. This gives us a total Democrat bias of roughly 6.5%.

What does this mean? Until pollsters switch to sampling likely voters right before the election, you can subtract a solid 6 percent from Joe Biden’s approval numbers. And if nothing changes before the election, any Democrat who leads by 3 percent or less is likely to lose.

If we apply that math to the numbers from the Civiqs poll above, Brandon’s approval numbers are potentially a dismal 27 percent. That’s worse than Donald Trump’s worst approval rating (29% in January 2021). And remember that Trump’s numbers were undoubtably biased in favor of Democrats.

I refuse to gloat. As we saw in 2020, our institutions are deeply infected with reprobates who have no hesitation in “fortifying” elections with dirty money, coordinated smear campaigns, and ballot stuffing. All I can say is that everything continues to point to a red tsunami in November.

I don’t think there’s anything that will change that trajectory either, not even the likely roll back of Roe v. Wade. Independents might trend more liberal in social issues, but they’re subject to the economic realities that every American is suffering right now. The electorate is reeling from inflation and rocketing gas prices, Brandon and company don’t have any answers, and Americans will vote with their pocketbooks.

In any other era, it would be a foregone conclusion that the Dems would suffer a crushing defeat this November. Unfortunately, all predictions of a red wave this fall come with an asterisk that says, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”