It’s the third month of being under CoronaCareᵀᴹ — March, April and May. The American economy is in a nosedive, shrinking by 4.8 percent in the first quarter—mostly based on just the month of March. Some economists predict that the second quarter will be monumentally worse — Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline of 34 percent.
If there’s anything to look forward to, “Arizona State University economists are predicting a recession of three to nine months, followed by a swift recovery” early in 2021 if consumer spending kicks in as they expect. That could be a big “if.”
Consumer spending was down 7.6 percent in the first quarter. In order for consumers to spend, they need to be employed. Just over 30 million people have filed first-time claims for jobless benefits since mid-March — about 18.6 percent of the labor force.
Watch the unemployment numbers against spending over the next few months for a clue on consumer confidence. If I was just coming off of unemployment, I’d be reserved in my spending, especially with a predicted “second wave” of the Asian Contagion once stay-at-home orders are lifted.
CAN WE HAVE A SERIOUS MOMENT ABOUT JOE BIDEN?
As you’ll learn if you follow me for any length of time, I don’t have much use for the Democrats in Washington, D.C. or for their compatriots in the states. I oppose almost everything they stand for. I don’t like their ideology, I don’t like their policies, I don’t like their political tactics and I don’t like their senior leaders. The only reason I care about who they nominate for president is because that person will be the competition.
Joe Biden is a terrible candidate and the Democrats are welcome to him. But there is so much wrong with him as the presumptive nominee that I find his front-runner status mysterious.
By any objective measure, Joe Biden shouldn’t even be in this race. His degraded mental acuity, verbal word salads, strange anecdotes, immature displays of bravado, witless gaffes, patronizing accents, bald nepotism, handsy personal space invasions and now—now!—being credibly accused of sexually assaulting a junior staffer in 1993 while he was a U.S. Senator—all of it should disqualify him from seeking office.
It’s embarrassing. Yet there he is.
I am genuinely puzzled by his presence and I wonder if rank and file Democrats are, too. The DNC arranged for Biden to come out on top because as poor a candidate as he is, Biden is their best shot to win the White House.
Of the other Democrat primary leaders, Bernie Sanders had an enthusiastic base but was a few Bolsheviks short of a revolution; Elizabeth Warren was tacking so sharply to port that Independents fell overboard; and Mayor Pete was too young and inexperienced for most voters.
Yet the Democrats have to know that Biden is probably not mentally or physically fit for the demands of the presidency, and now he’s dogged by the allegations of sexual assault. So why stand by him?
This is what troubles me. I think the Democrats are aware that their “best shot” isn’t all that good. That leaves them with two choices: either replace him, or find a running mate for him who will generate voter enthusiasm and effectively become the Democratic nominee.
It doesn’t take much to imagine that their strategy is to install as Biden’s running mate their true pick for the top job and, once he’s in office, use the twenty-fifth amendment to force him out over his deteriorating mental and physical fitness. Once he vacates the office, his vice-president then assumes the presidency.
In other words, a Trojan Horse. It’s technically legal but morally repugnant, and that possibility is what bothers me most about Joe Biden’s candidacy.