Daily Verse | 2 Kings 25:9
He set fire to the temple of the Lord, the royal palace and all the houses of Jerusalem. Every important building he burned down.

Thursday’s Reading: 1 Chronicles 1-5

Thursday and although I deeply resent the presence of Resident Brandon not only for his lack of courage and character, but also for the way in which he attained his office, I admit that his failing mental acuity is a tragedy for him and makes him a more sympathetic figure for those who, like me, do have compassion for those who are handicapped by some kind of physical limitation.

I do have some sympathy for his deteriorating mental condition but — BUT — he and his handlers put him out there in public and he is clearly a menace to our nation. In addition, he’s an insufferable blowhard who thinks stratospherically more highly of himself than his performance allows. Even with all the shucking and jiving the media does to cover for Brandon, the public isn’t stupid, and it’s showing up in the polls.

More important than money, at least to us, is the political environment, which continues to look promising for Republicans. President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains just a little over 40% in averages, with disapproval a bit over 50%. Polls of congressional voting sentiment, the House generic ballot, continue to be relatively close, with Republicans generally up just a few points in averages. But if Biden’s approval continues to be weak, we would expect the Republican advantage to grow in the coming months.

So our main question about the House continues to be not whether Republicans will flip the House — although we would not completely shut the door on Democrats’ retaining control if the political environment improves markedly — but rather how big the Republicans’ eventual majority will be.

Toward that end, we are making 11 House rating changes, all in favor of Republicans. 

That’s from Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The other is from The Cook Political Report (paywall).

President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising “reach” opportunities.

This week, we’re moving eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories. With these changes, there are 27 Democratic seats in Toss Up or worse, and that list is certain to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their lines. By contrast, there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse – all of which are due to redistricting, not atmospheric factors. Republicans need to net just five seats to regain the House.

Both of these sites are well-respected in their political forecasts, and both are showing major shifts towards Republicans.

In addition, Brandon’s support among the youth vote has completely collapsed, as Stephen Green reports.

Canadian leftie Jeet Heer was sounding the alarm about the “collapse of support for Biden among young” people, which he described as “a disaster.”

That’s in no small part, as Heer also noted, because “Under 44 was the only age group Biden won a majority of in 2020.”
[…]
Snark aside, pollsters call the narrower 18-34 age group the youth vote, and taking just them into account, Biden’s support has dropped 18 points since Election Day, putting him 26 points underwater with a 55% disapprove/29% approve rating.

That’s crater territory.

Even worse, the Resident is down 26 points among Hispanics, and 30 points among Blacks. Black voters have been the most stalwart Democrat constituency for the last 60 years, but that support is falling apart. If you’ve lost a cornerstone of your support and aren’t making any headwind with other constituencies, that can only mean one thing: disaster.

Nothing is guaranteed, but the 2022 mid-terms are shaping up to be a tsunami of loss for Democrats this fall.

Just don’t get cocky, take nothing for granted, and vote.