Daily Verse | Psalm 27:8
My heart says of you, “Seek his face!”
Your face, Lord, I will seek.
Wednesday’s Reading: Psalms 31-35
Happy Wednesday my friends. Summer has hit the Midwest and we’re experiencing temperatures in the nineties this week. Hot and muggy. I won’t complain, though, because I was so done with the extreme cold of winter.
I try to stay current with Brandon’s popularity or, as it’s called by the polling firms, “approval ratings.” A new poll by Civiqs shows him underwater by 17 points.
That chart shows all respondents. It includes Republicans, Democrats and Independents. When you filter for Democrats only, this is what you get:
It boggles my mind to see that 70 percent of Democrats approve of the job Brandon’s doing (in a downward trend). I honestly can’t understand why only 12 percent disapprove. That’s less than have no opinion (17%).
Republicans are much clearer about what they think of the Resident.
Those supporting the GOP came out of the gate disapproving of Brandon and have only gotten stronger over the last 17 months. The 2 percent who approve are Never Trumpers and the writers at The Dispatch and The Bulwark. Oh, plus RINOs Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and Mitt Romney.
Remember that only about 37% of the population is Democrat while 31% is Republican. The rest are Independents. That means that neither party wins without significant support from indies. Here’s what the poll tells us about them.
That’s quite a gap — a 45-point spread with an upward trend. As much as they hated Trump, Independents are realizing they’ve been had by the Democrats. Good luck closing the gap, Dems.
As bad as these numbers are for Democrats, it’s likely they’re even worse than being reported. According to this piece in the American Thinker, most polling firms “are systemically biased against conservatives.”
For three cycles in a row, there’s been this consistent pattern of pollsters overestimating Democratic support in some states and underestimating support in other states. It happened in 2018. It happened in 2020. And the reason that’s happening is because the way that [pollsters] are doing polling right now just doesn’t work.
The author goes on to identify two intractable problems for pollsters: “One is developing an accurate voter turnout model that predicts who is likely to vote. The other is getting an unbiased measurement of what voters think, known as a random sample.” Getting an unbiased measurement is difficult because Republican voters, in particular, don’t trust political polls.
The trust issue is a societal problem that has been building for many years. Due to partisan infighting, some voters have lost faith in our national institutions; politics; and, by association, political polls. This issue affects conservatives more than liberals, causing a polling effect called partisan nonresponse or nonresponse bias.
After some additional analysis, he concludes with this:
If the polls are overestimating approval numbers for Biden and other Democrats, how bad is it? The political climate today is different since the 2020 election, but the Democrat poll bias seems intact, which was 4% nationwide. Since nonresponse bias, 4%, and registered voter bias, 2.6%, should be mutually exclusive, we can add them together. This gives us a total Democrat bias of roughly 6.5%.
What does this mean? Until pollsters switch to sampling likely voters right before the election, you can subtract a solid 6 percent from Joe Biden’s approval numbers. And if nothing changes before the election, any Democrat who leads by 3 percent or less is likely to lose.
If we apply that math to the numbers from the Civiqs poll above, Brandon’s approval numbers are potentially a dismal 27 percent. That’s worse than Donald Trump’s worst approval rating (29% in January 2021). And remember that Trump’s numbers were undoubtably biased in favor of Democrats.
I refuse to gloat. As we saw in 2020, our institutions are deeply infected with reprobates who have no hesitation in “fortifying” elections with dirty money, coordinated smear campaigns, and ballot stuffing. All I can say is that everything continues to point to a red tsunami in November.
I don’t think there’s anything that will change that trajectory either, not even the likely roll back of Roe v. Wade. Independents might trend more liberal in social issues, but they’re subject to the economic realities that every American is suffering right now. The electorate is reeling from inflation and rocketing gas prices, Brandon and company don’t have any answers, and Americans will vote with their pocketbooks.
In any other era, it would be a foregone conclusion that the Dems would suffer a crushing defeat this November. Unfortunately, all predictions of a red wave this fall come with an asterisk that says, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”