So I have a couple of significant projects that are requiring a lot of attention and time these days. I’ll try to get a couple of Broadsides in today and tomorrow.
In the wake of the debate disaster, not only have Biden’s numbers tanked, but Trump’s numbers are soaring. Since we know that the Democrats are lying liars who lie, I always have to issue the disclaimer to not get cocky because we also know that they are cheaters who will do anything to win. Just look at the 2020 election, the lawfare against Donald J. Trump, or the first Oath Keeper J6 trial.
The latest Emerson College Polling survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a national matchup, 46% to 43%; 11% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, 50% support Trump and 50% support Biden.
Trump beats every Democrat candidate he’s matched with, meaning that Joe Biden can credibly claim that only he (and Harris) are in a position to beat Trump (should the undecided break for Biden).
In the same poll, Independents are breaking for Trump.
New election data shows independent voters breaking for former President Donald J. Trump after the 81-year-old incumbent Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27—and the subsequent calls by leading Democrats that he drop out of the 2024 presidential race. The polling by Emerson College shows Trump leading among independents with 42 percent of the vote, compared to Biden’s 38 percent. This is an inversion from last month when Biden led 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.
On top of that, voter enthusiasm favors Trump.
In addition, Biden‘s impaired debate performance appears to be dampening Democrat enthusiasm ahead of November’s election. Nearly 80 percent of Republican respondents said they were extremely motivated to vote. Meanwhile, just 65 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independent voters said the same.
As if that weren’t bad enough, a new report says that six states have swung toward Trump.
The Cook Political Report released on Tuesday showed that three states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — have moved from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” while two other states — Minnesota and New Hampshire — have moved from “likely” to “lean Democrat.” Also, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District moved from “likely” to “lean Democrat.”
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said the Electoral Map shows that Trump has a “clear advantage” over Biden.
“The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” Wasserman said on X. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
There is definitely momentum building for Team Trump.
The report also showed that Trump has over a “3-point lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and Biden has less than a percentage point lead in Wisconsin and Michigan,” per the Washington Examiner, while Trump has a 0.7-point lead in Pennsylvania. Walter said that two-point shift in the race could be monumental.
“For example, if Trump were to win the national popular vote by three points, it would be a seven-point improvement from his 2020 showing,” Walter said. “In other words, any state or district that Biden carried by eight points or less would be competitive.”
I don’t know which polls to trust, since most national polls skew liberal. But the wider the gap they show, the better Trump is doing at overcoming any implicit bias in the polling.
Finally, when you’ve lost Jake Tapper, your humiliation is complete.