We’re still 17.5 months away from the next presidential election, enough time for the Resident to do more considerable damage to the nation of which he is the titular head. I won’t say that he “leads” the U.S. because as we all know, he doesn’t have that capacity.
Nevertheless, we can begin fretting about how the political fight among Republicans will shape up and start making some observations. Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and conservative radio host Larry Elder have officially declared their candidacies to be the Republican nominee for president.
Of course, the presumptive nominee to beat is president-in-exile Donald J. Trump.
Historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Niall Ferguson, makes a prediction about Trump that has caught the public’s attention.
Former President Donald Trump is likely to become the next U.S. president, according to Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson.
“A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case,” Ferguson, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute, wrote in a May 13 op-ed for The Spectator.
Ferguson explained that there is a “campaign of lawfare against Trump” but the effort “has already started to backfire.”
“It may seem paradoxical that the Democrats are harassing Trump in the courts if they want to run against him. But it makes sense: the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived,” Ferguson wrote.
Ferguson added, “Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination.”
We already know that the DNC, the media, NeverTrumpers and social media giants like Facebook are all in to prevent Trump from becoming president again, and they’ll abuse the law in service to that end if it keeps him out of office.
I’ve said before that the greatest service Trump did for the country, perhaps apart from appointing conservative Supreme Court justices, was to expose the Deep State and their lawless activities, even if he did it inadvertently. Did you see John Durham’s report yesterday? It proves that the FBI knew the Steele dossier was garbage, but they used it as a pretext to open the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into whether Trump was a Russian stooge. It also proves that Hillary Clinton was in on the scam from the start. Think anyone will go to prison for conducting a psyops campaign during a presidential election, or nah?
Norms status: R E S T O R E D.
If Trump wins the White House again, it will be the same harassment and false charges all over again to hamper any effectiveness he might have.
What about Ron DeSantis?
Ferguson also argued that if it were a two-man race between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, there would be “a good deal more uncertainty around the outcome,” given that the governor “still looks to be in contention” in head-to-head polling.
“When voters are polled about this crowded field, Trump is the clear frontrunner, leading DeSantis by an average margin of nearly 30 points, 52.1 percent to 22.9,” Ferguson wrote.
Currently, the Florida governor has not indicated when or if he will announce a 2024 White House bid.
I like what I’ve seen of DeSantis, but I also like what I’ve seen of Ramaswamy. As you know if you’ve been reading this blog for any length of time, I’m very mixed on Trump. Although if he’s the nominee, I’d crawl over broken glass and spilled vinegar to pull the lever for him.
Ferguson places the betting odds on Trump.
As for the primaries, Ferguson notes that Republican candidates that have an early lead in the polls, as Trump does, typically end up the nominee. “Early frontrunners have won Republican primaries in six out of eight competitive races since 1972, when the modern system of primaries was introduced,” he notes. “The two exceptions were John McCain in 2008 and Trump himself in 2016.”
If Donald Trump maintains his current average polling numbers throughout the first half of 2023 but fails to become the Republican Party’s choice for the presidential nomination, he would become the highest-polling candidate ever to be unsuccessful in securing the nomination. So the odds are clearly in his favor.
As for the general election. Democrats assume that Trump can’t beat Biden — and that’s probably the only reason they’re tolerating nominating a vegetable for president — particularly in light of the results of the 2022 midterms. Of course, while Joe Biden likes to take credit for that, the abortion issue was a much more significant factor than Joe Biden.
Ferguson goes on to say that the economy will be a huge factor in the 2024 election and that, historically, “The Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election.”
I don’t know that post-2020 we can count on historical precedent. We now know that the government uses its political power to favor Democrats and that organizations like Facebook pump money into regions where they can harvest ballots on behalf of Democrats. We are becoming like the corrupt third-world countries run by tin pot dictators who hold political power by cheating and rigging and influencing the elections. I used to feel sorry for those people who voted in vain.
Now I just feel sorry for us.