The Broadside | Two Political Analysts Predict Opposite Outcomes in November

Welcome back!

No, not you.

Me!

Hard to believe that it’s been over a month since I last posted. That’s the longest I’ve gone without a post over the last four-and-half years. I’d apologize, but I can’t say I’m sorry.

August was a month full of travel and working diligently to complete that project and this past week one of my littles had a little. I’m a grandfather and now I smell like menthol and wear suspenders and carry Werther’s candy in my pockets.

AnyH0oO.

The last time we were together I believe Joe “my word as a Biden” Brandon was still the Resident. A lot has happened since then, amiright? The Demokraken, champions of “muh democracy,” forced Joey Vanilla Bean out of the race and installed Cacklin’ KUHmala without so much as the courtesy of citizen input in the form of a primary.

Nope, the Democalvinists predetermined that their tribe chose KaMAHla. How’s that working out?

The formula Allan Lichtman has used to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his “Keys to the White House,” was developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and is based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The “keys” consist of 13 true or false questions, parameters that, if true, favor stability. 

“The way it works is real simple. If six or more keys — any six — go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Otherwise, they’re predicted winners,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital this week. “And by the way, this also led to a prediction of Donald Trump’s win, which made me virtually alone in making that prediction in 2016.” 

Lichtman says the Democrats represented by Harris could lose five keys “at most” and that is why he is predicting that “we are going to have a precedent-breaking election and Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.”

There you have it. Get used to Mrs. President’s cackling after a vapid, vacuous, and uninspiring word salad, “unburdened by what has been.”

The only saving grace is that Lichtman has been wrong once before, which means his method of prediction isn’t foolproof. Even Tom Brady lost a Super Bowl or three.

So, for instance, there’s also this:

A liberal pollster’s latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.

Nate Silver’s prediction places the Republican hopeful’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.

Silver’s modelling, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, also places Trump ahead in all of the crucial swing states.

He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.

The figure is a massive upswing on the 227 Trump secured against Biden in 2020 and even an improvement on his victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 when he romped to the White House with 304 electoral college votes.

That’s encouraging. But I have to warn you, if it’s anywhere close, the Democrats will cheat. They did it in 2020 and they’re figuring out how to do it in 2024. They’ll flood a toilet in Arizona again which will stop the counting in six swing states and then truck in the pallet-loads of ballots to feed the voting machines and we’ll see KamaLA suddenly overcome Trump’s victory.

By all that’s logical, Trump’s going to be elected for the third time this fall. But may God have mercy on the U.S. if Kamalarama is the certified winner.