It’s the day before perhaps the most consequential presidential election of my life. We’re either going to repudiate the insanity of Obama’s third term or we’re going to march into a thousand years of darkness. OK, that might be overstating it a bit, but if anyone but Trump takes the helm in January, I’m afraid that any chance to resurrect America as founded will be gone for a long time—perhaps for good.
Think of it as the last chance to grab a dead branch sticking out of the riverbank as you’re swept along with the current toward the falls just around the bend up ahead.
While the race is a virtual dead heat, there is some reason for hope.
As for the battleground states, the newest poll has Trump ahead in all seven swing states, including Wisconsin. If that wasn’t good enough news for you, his lead is outside the margin of error in three states: Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.
In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump holds modest leads, outpacing Harris by 3.4 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively. His biggest leads are in Arizona and Nevada, where his advantage reaches 6.5 and 5.5 points. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the race is closer, but Trump maintains slight leads, with margins ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 points. Overall, while the race remains tight in some states, Trump has managed to secure a consistent edge over Harris throughout these battleground regions.
On top of that, Alex Castellanos, a Republican strategist, thinks the pollsters are missing a key dynamic in the race because it has remained so tight over the last couple of months.
I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation. You know, 95% confidence level means that 5% of the time you’re going to get a crappy poll. We hardly ever see that.
It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball. Somebody’s missing something. What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. 31 states have voter registration by party. 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans. Miami-Dade County is now voting more Republican.
Iowa was +1 Republican. It’s now +10. And yet we’re getting these surveys that I think are off base. Somebody is missing something. I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?
This all bodes well for Trump. But as I’ve said before, I don’t trust the polling, I don’t trust the Democrats, and I won’t feel any relief until Trump takes the oath in January.
If you haven’t voted, get out there tomorrow and vote like Trump is down and your vote is the one that will put him over the top.