Political polls are notoriously imprecise, but they do give us a sense of what the electorate might be thinking. Some recent polls have put Democrats into a tailspin, including this one from NBC “News.”
In the new poll — which was conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.
An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.
Because national polls are also notoriously biased in favor of Democrats, the latest findings mean that Trump has opened up a considerable lead.
The results align with a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Via Breitbart:
The NBC poll reflects other poll results, with the Wall Street Journal poll showing Trump leading Harris, 46%-45%, nationwide. The Journal says that the result in swing states is too close to call but currently gives Harris the edge.
CNN is worried too, now that Republicans have a “GOP ADVANTAGE for the first time in many years.”
If swing states are becoming “too close to call” (as the WSJ puts it above), that bodes well for Trump; if one swing state is in play, it essentially means that all swing states are in play. The GOP ADVANTAGE is beginning to show up in some swing states. Activist Scott Pressler, who leads Early Vote Action PAC, is seeing the difference in Pennsylvania.
“Let’s talk about the data for a second and why I think, objectively, we’re in the best place to win Pennsylvania [compared to] four or even eight years ago,” Presler told Morning Wire.
“Two things that really stick out to me are, a.) Since 2020, we have actually cut in half the amount of registered Democrats in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, where they had an advantage of 650,000 four years ago,” he explained. “Now that advantage has been narrowed to 333,000.”
“But the other thing that leads me to believe that President Trump has a real shot at winning Pennsylvania is that Democrats are down 416,000 mail-in ballot requests from where they were four years ago at the same time,” Presler revealed.
Voters are also reassessing their experience under President Trump’s first term.
He then noted further polling indicating that only a quarter of families say Biden-era policies are helping their family, whereas 45% say they are “hurting” them.
“And then here’s the interesting twist. We also asked folks, ‘Think back to when Donald Trump was president. Did his policies help or hurt your family?’ And look at the difference, 44% helping, 31 hurting. Trump’s — the retrospective, you would say, opinion of Trump’s presidency among voters, arguably higher now than when he was president,” Kornacki said.
For some people, the biggest indicator that Trump will win is his lead in betting odds.
Former President Trump took a double-digit lead in the betting odds over Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since July, signaling potential momentum for the former president as Election Day draws near.
Trump opened up a 10-point lead in the Real Clear Politics betting average on Sunday, his largest lead over Harris and the largest lead any candidate has enjoyed since the former president’s 10-point lead on July 31.
The lead comes as some in Democratic circles have attempted to quell panic within the ranks after recent polling that has seemingly trended toward Trump,
This is all good for president-in-exile Donald J. Trump. But as I’ve said before, especially since the last presidential election, don’t get cocky. The Democrats don’t want to, and don’t intend to, lose. The only way we can prevent the inevitable cheating that they will engage in to preserve their power is to make the margin of victory so big that they can’t possibly manufacture enough votes to win.
Get registered (if you still can) and make every effort to get out and vote on November 5. And bring someone with you to vote too.