Well, hump day is in the rear view mirror for another week. Hats off to those of you who didn’t need a shove to make it up and over. Not that I did, but there’s always next week.
For the first time in months I’m feeling concerned about the election in November. Actually, “concerned” is too mild. What I’m really feeling is apprehension.
The CEO of Democratic data and analytics firm Hawkfish warned in a recent interview that we might face a “red mirage” on election night. That means that Donald J. Trump may look like he’s won in a landslide on November 3, but as mail-in votes are counted over the next week (or weeks), his lead evaporates and he ends up losing.
Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans, due to fears of the coronavirus, and it will take days if not weeks to tally these. This means Trump, thanks to Republicans doing almost all of their voting in person, could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night.
This may explain why Hillary Clinton said, “Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out and eventually I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is.” That lays the groundwork for trying to invalidate Trump’s claim to victory.
It also may explain why the Democrats are using the Commie Bat Virus to keep polling locations locked up so that voters have to mail their vote. Mail-in voting is ripe for fraud, as we learned this week from an anonymous top Democratic operative who fixed mail-in ballots for decades. The conservative Heritage Foundation published a study that documented more than 1,000 instances of voter fraud, most over the last 20 years. What makes us think that this will be any different?
We may be in for a wild ride in November, but there’s three counterweights that may offset the possibility of a short-lived “victory.”
First, the enthusiasm gap. Trump gets Trump caravans and Trump boat parades. Biden steps out of his basement and is heckled by a critic while delivering pizzas to first responders.
Second, minority voters. Trump got a significant bump in support from black and Hispanic voters after the RNC.
Nineteen percent of black voters support President Trump, while 77 percent support former Vice President Biden. This represents an 11 point increase of support among black voters for the president, compared to the 8 percent support he received in the 2016 presidential election.
Thirty nine percent of Hispanic voters support President Trump, while only 50 percent support former Vice President Biden, a ten point increase in support among Hispanic voters for the president, compared to the 28 percent he received in the 2016 presidential election.
Third, the riots. The vast majority of Americans do not support BLM or Antifa, and definitely not the rioting, looting, arson and murders that have destroyed small businesses (many of them black-owned) and major shopping districts in some of our larger cities. People and businesses are fleeing the cities for the suburbs. They don’t feel safe and don’t hear the Democrats denouncing the violence.
This is resulting in a lot of Democrats who say they are going to vote for Trump this fall. They may not like conservatives, but they like deranged sociopaths calling for “Death to America” even less.
All of it adds up to a rout. But Democrats are desperate and will stop at nothing to regain power. While I believe Trump will win by a landslide, I don’t like the way this November is setting up. I think we’re in for a contested election, and it could get ugly.
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A Personal Note
I write five days a week on personal time because it’s one way I can contribute to strengthening the resolve of Christians, conservatives and other like-minded compatriots in the face of unprecedented division in our country. I would like to eventually do more. If you like what you’re reading and think others would benefit from it, please consider regularly sharing and commenting on my posts. Also invite your friends to subscribe. They can do that right on the home page. Thanks for reading! — Dave