Start of another week on the way to Election 2020. Did you know it’s the 59th quadrennial presidential election? The 2024 election will be the 60th since George Washington was elected our first president. But let’s focus on the one in front of us.
Last Monday I highlighted some conservative opinion leaders who are anxious about Trump’s chances at being re-elected on November 3. Today I want to underscore some observations that disputes that cynicism. These include:
- National poll reliability
- The Biden campaign’s own assessment
- “Sentiment analysis”
- Shy Trump voters
- Early and Mail-in voting
- The “enthusiasm gap”
This Broadside is a little bit longer so I can cover each of these, but I think you’ll find it encouraging.
National Polling Reliability
There are several observers who don’t think national polling that places Joe Biden ahead by nine or ten points (or as many as 18) can be trusted. It’s not only because we saw this movie in 2016 when Hillary was ahead by nearly double-digits 14 days before the election. As Rick Moran writes, “The most misleading polls in this or any other election are national polls … The reality is that it doesn’t matter how many votes Biden gets overall, but where he gets them.”
A similar view is based on what I’ll call “poll fatigue.” In modern presidential elections, the number of polls have skyrocketed, leading to potential voters being bombarded daily with calls asking for their voting preferences.
“I therefore think none of the poll results today are trustworthy because too many people, from all political perspectives, are simply tired of being harassed by pollsters. They are refusing to talk, and thus the pollsters are only getting a very limited slice of opinions, from a few people who likely don’t represent the general population. The only polls that might produce reliable results would be those conducted door-to-door, but few today are conducted in this manner.”
In case you’re still worried that the national polls are accurate, here are a few indicators that may help alleviate your concerns.
Biden Campaign Disputes National Polls
First and foremost, Joe Biden’s campaign itself contradicts the national polls. Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden campaign manager, reportedly said, ““The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest. Even the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied.”
“Sentiment Analysis”
Additionally, Fortune has an interesting article about Expert.ai, a company “that uses an A.I. technique called ‘sentiment analysis’ to understand the emotions being expressed in social media posts.”
The company’s analysis puts Democratic candidate Joseph Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, 50.2% to 47.3%, a margin that is much narrower than the double-digit lead that Biden has over Trump in most national opinion polls.
Based on these [national opinion] polls, many political analysts and commentators are expecting that Biden may win a historic landslide. But Expert.ai’s A.I.-based analysis indicates the race may be much tighter than these human experts are expecting.
Shy Trump Voters
Another factor in play is the “shy Trump voters.” These are people who don’t want to talk to pollsters about who they plan to vote for.
These voters are very real but quite invisible to pollsters. Some shy Trump voters are willing to participate in some public opinion surveys, yet remain reluctant to level with pollsters. A recent IBD/TIPP poll found the following: “Overall, 20% of registered voters say they’re uncomfortable revealing their preferred candidate.” This isn’t the only survey to reveal such reticence. A recent Cato Institute poll found that the reluctance of conservatives to share their political views has increased from 70 percent to 77 percent since 2017.
Bloomberg, a more liberal site, agrees:
A new online study finds that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election. That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump.
Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC,
Early Voting and Mail-In Voting
The Washington Examiner also reports on mail-in voting that should favor Joe Biden by wide margins—but it doesn’t.
In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots. // The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person.
Another report suggests that Biden’s lead over Trump isn’t even as solid as Clinton’s was in 2016.
“According to an analysis from Real Clear Politics, Biden holds a 4.4 percentage point lead over the president in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona,” she explains. “However, Democrat Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by 4.8 points in these swing states this time in 2016—a slightly greater advantage than the one Biden currently has.”
Over at Victory Girls they break down accusations of “voter suppression” as fanciful, writing,
Of the “big” prize states, California and New York are a wash for Trump. But Florida (29 EC votes) and Texas (38 EC votes) are very much in play. Texas has broken previous records for early voting. The Texas Tribune reports, “Voters in Harris County [Houston] shattered the record for in-person ballots cast on the first day of early voting, with more than 128,000 people voting, according to the county elections office. The previous record was set in 2016, when about 68,000 people cast votes there.“
Is it Biden or Trump generating that much enthusiasm?
The Enthusiasm Gap
Speaking of enthusiasm, the “enthusiasm gap” would seem to suggest that Trump wins in a landslide. According to the New York Post,
Enthusiasm for Trump among his voters “is historically high,” said Richard Baris, the director of Big Data Poll. “We saw that very early in the cycle, in his primary vote totals,” when the president drew unusually large voter turnout in uncontested races.
“Meanwhile, Biden’s enthusiasm level is historically low — so low that the Democrats run the risk of replaying 2016,” Baris said.
Just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump’s base.
Trump pulls in massive crowds at his rallies. He’s got car caravans and boat parades that number in the thousands of participants. Most of these aren’t “planned events” being coordinated by the RNC. Many of them are organized locally at the grassroots level.
On the other hand, Joe Biden can barely draw a few dozen people and, in at least one case, no one showed up.
Two more interesting—and unconventional—angles on the election. First, one writer thinks that the NBA ratings crash during the championship series could be taken as a poll.
The NBA ratings crash is a signal that a substantial number of fans, many of whom also happen to be voters, are completely fed up with the daily harangue of being told they are deplorable and racist, and that their guilt for being such terrible people will simply not be allowed to go away.
Next, according to Fox News,
A family-owned bakery in the town of Hatboro [PA] claims that its election-themed cookies — which are currently flying off the rack — have accurately predicted the outcome of the past three presidential elections.
So, who’s winning? “‘So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1,’ [bakery owner Kathleen Lochel] told Fox News on Friday morning.” How can you argue with data like that?
I’d characterize the NBA ratings and local cookie sales as “sentiment analysis.” Put it all together with the lack of polling reliability, the shy Trump voters, the lack of Democrat enthusiasm for mail-in voting and the very real enthusiasm gap, and I think Trump supporters have good reasons to remain optimistic.
And one more thing — is America really going to install as president a career politician who made himself millions by selling access to his office while he was vice-president? Unfortunately, it could happen.
But, as I said a week ago, I’m not a political prognosticator and I refuse to make a prediction. I will say that these factors all bode well for president Trump, but they don’t guarantee a victory.
Ultimately, the only poll that counts is the one on November 3. Get out there and vote, in person, and take one or two or a dozen more people with you to the ballot box.
[Image credit: Jason Buck for POLITICO]